Second winter of woe threatens the global economy: a green week ahead

(Bloomberg) – The global economy is approaching northern hemisphere winter in disarray, unable to shake off the coronavirus crisis amid persistent supply disruptions, soaring prices and resurgence epidemics.

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The global surveys conducted this week among purchasing managers probably point in this direction. Among the results expected by economists are a slowdown in manufacturing and services activity in the euro zone and the United Kingdom, and a modest improvement in the United States

As parts of Europe face new restrictions to contain another wave of the virus, as the rebound in China wears off and the rise in infections takes hold in America as well, much of the The global economy now faces the threat of a second winter of woe in the north, made worse by a cost-squeeze of living amid soaring gas prices and supply bottlenecks.

Europe is at the sharpest end of the Advanced World’s Corner. Record infections in Germany could prompt authorities to announce further closures, and Austria has already done so. The continent as a whole is experiencing a painful spike in consumer prices.

In the United States, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers has said he sees no more than a 15% chance that “everything will be okay”, with much higher odds of stubbornly high inflation or a slowdown in growth.

The extent to which these results materialize will inform monetary policy deliberations on the speed of the withdrawal of stimulus measures in the Group of Seven, culminating with a grand final of decisions in mid-December. This is when central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, hold their last meetings of the year.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“Much of Europe is backing down again from a fourth wave of Covid-19, and data from next week’s survey should give some early clues about the economic impact of rising rates of infection. “

–For a full analysis, click here

Elsewhere this week, monetary officials in New Zealand and South Korea may hike interest rates, and minutes from the latest Fed and European Central Bank meetings will be released.

Click here to find out what happened over the past week and here’s our recap of what’s happening in the global economy.

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A pre-holiday economic data party and a possible announcement on President Joe Biden’s choice to lead the Federal Reserve will be presented to investors in the coming week.

The government’s personal income and expenditure report, which includes a measure of inflation tracked by the Fed, will be the main course on data-heavy Wednesday before markets close the next day for Thanksgiving.

Wednesday’s other releases include durable goods orders, revised third quarter economic growth, new home sales, merchandise trade and a final read on consumer sentiment. Existing data on home purchases and the November manufacturing and services surveys will surface earlier in the week.

Also on Wednesday, the Fed will release the minutes of its policy meeting in early November in which the US central bank said it would start cutting back on asset purchases.

In the meantime, the White House has said Biden will announce whether he will reappoint Jerome Powell for a second term as central bank chairman, or opt for Fed Governor Lael Brainard instead.

Asia

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Korea are both expected to hike interest rates for the second time since the pandemic as they lead the pack in Asia in taking steps to step back from the stimulus at full speed and get a head start in containing any risk of inflation.

Preliminary South Korean trade figures should support the case for a rise even though they show signs of stabilizing after stellar year-over-year gains.

Reserve Bank of Australia officials will speak on panels and may shed light on how strongly the central bank will stick to its rate cut position.

Tokyo’s inflation figures at the end of the week will show whether Japan sees more signs of a price recovery as energy costs soar. China sets the prime rate on its loans on Monday and Sri Lanka sets rates on Thursday.

Europe, Middle East, Africa

With more than two weeks before ECB officials enter the period of calm before their crucial decision on the future of stimulus measures, comments from several of them could rivet investors. President Christine Lagarde will be one of the political decision-makers.

The ECB will also release a report from its previous meeting in October, when Lagarde and his colleagues struggled to convince financial markets that bets on an interest rate hike in 2022 to control inflation were likely out of place.

In addition to the results of the monthly purchasing manager survey expected across the continent, Germany’s Ifo index will provide another snapshot of Europe’s largest economy on Wednesday – just as it is reeling from the ongoing supply disruptions, new infections and a changing political system amid continued coalition negotiations. .

The Bank of England’s decision in December seems loaded with suspense as to whether policymakers will raise interest rates. The public remarks in the coming week by Governor Andrew Bailey and a few colleagues may therefore attract attention.

Sweden’s central bank will make its final monetary decision of the year on Thursday. With the Riksbank set to keep its interest rate unchanged at zero for a while, the focus will likely be on whether it will signal a hike by the end of 2024.

Further afield, Israel is expected to maintain borrowing costs on Monday due to strong growth and slowing inflation, largely driven by the shekel.

In Russia, Wednesday’s weekly inflation will be closely watched for any clues as to whether price pressures are starting to ease, as many economists have predicted.

Ghanaian policymakers are expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Monday, after inflation accelerated to a 15-month high in October. Nigeria’s central bank is also expected to remain firm on Tuesday, as inflation moderates and after economic growth slows in the third quarter.

Latin America

Argentina’s fiscal balance data due Monday should underscore the challenge of getting its debt back on track to sustainability. The drop in the number of cases in Mexico led to a rebound in same-store sales, a likely harbinger of stronger September retail sales readings on Tuesday.

Economic activity in Argentina has surprised analysts on the rise since the middle of the year and has returned to its pre-pandemic level. Analysts see further growth in September numbers.

Look for Brazil’s consumer price data mid-month Thursday to push higher from the mid-October print of 10.34%. However, after a sustained increase since May 2020, a certain deceleration is to be expected: economists questioned by the central bank see inflation at the end of the year at 9.77%, while the central bank assesses it at 9, 5%.

In Mexico, final third-quarter production data is expected, with all indications still pointing to a strong rebound in 2021. Economists forecast a sharp rise in inflation by mid-month, in line with the Deputy Governor’s opinion de Banxico, Jonathan Heath, that it could reach 7.3% by the end of the year.

Finally, Banxico publishes the report of its meeting of November 11, during which it raised the key rate by a quarter of a point for the fourth time in a row to 5%.

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