Fed policy and Evergrande debt weigh on sentiment

Recap: European and emerging markets were mixed on Friday as investors and global traders assessed the prospect of a reduction in US Federal Reserve stimulus and the risks of a likely default from the Chinese real estate developer riddled with Evergrande debts.

The SET index traded in a narrow range between 1,617.31 and 1,642.63 points this week before closing yesterday at 1,625.65, down 0.59% from the previous week, for one figure average daily business of 85.76 billion baht.

Institutional investors were net buyers of 2.95 billion baht, foreign investors bought 682.19 million, and brokers bought 545.27 million baht of shares. Retail investors were net sellers of baht 4.18 billion of shares.

Current actors: Global thirst for oil will surpass pre-pandemic levels next year, improving vaccination rates and increasing public confidence in governments’ handling of Covid-19 are spurring travel resumption, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said on Monday.

Apple CEO Tim Cook walked through a brilliantly crafted video on Tuesday launching new iPhones and other products, with some clues about the issues the company is facing, including policy reversals, spyware attack and legal battles.

A US judge did not call Apple an “illegal monopolist,” but legal experts said the ruling in the dispute with popular game maker Fortnite could pave the way for more challenges to the restrictive App Store terms and conditions. high commissions from the iPhone maker.

Chinese regulators have ordered sweeping changes to the country’s largest payments app, Alipay, as the ruling Communist Party tries to curb the “unruly growth” of the tech giants.

Hong Kong casino stocks lost a record $ 14 billion in combined market value after Macau officials said they would tighten restrictions on operators, including appointing government officials to “oversee” the companies of the largest gaming center in the world.

Foreign investors are keeping a close watch on indebted Chinese real estate giant Evergrande, but markets don’t seem to fear major contagion, at least so far. With $ 300 billion in debt and a cash shortage, Evergrande might not be able to make an $ 80 million coupon payment due next week.

More than 60 cryptocurrency exchanges in South Korea could be shut down by the September 24 deadline if they cannot comply with new rules which include registration with the Financial Intelligence Unit, provision of ‘a security certificate from the Internet security agency and the guarantee of real accounts.

Malaysia will consider raising the statutory debt ceiling to 65% of GDP, as part of the measures to deal with the economic fallout from the pandemic, the finance minister said on Tuesday. The current 60% cap was raised from 55% last year.

Visitors flocked to the Malaysian island of Langkawi on Thursday as it became the country’s first hotspot to reopen after a coronavirus shutdown that hit the vital tourism industry.

Thailand’s financial system is stable and there are no big problems for the baht, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) said on Monday, adding that a “pain point” was limited access to credit for some companies with financial institutions.

Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith urged the Bureau of Fiscal Policy and the Bank of Thailand to jointly explore ways to relax some of the criteria for state banks to lend to domestic airlines to improve their liquidity .

A Government Housing Bank (GHB) project offering mortgages to low-income people has been overwhelmingly received, with requests worth 42 billion baht, double the amount allocated to the program, in just three days after registration opens.

Bangkok’s residential market will improve next year as supply and demand are more balanced, while foreign buyers, especially Chinese, are still interested in Thai real estate, according to industry executives.

Thailand’s national trade strategy for 2022 to 2027 is expected to focus on upgrading existing export products and services in line with modern technology, according to a study conducted by Thammasat University for the Ministry of Commerce.

Thailand, the world’s third-largest rice exporter, is expected to hit its target of 6 million tonnes this year, as supply-boosted rains and a lower baht make prices more competitive abroad. But shipments from India, ranked first, could reach 22 million tonnes, or 45% of the world total, thanks to the increase in port capacity.

SET plans to launch LiVE Exchange, a fundraising platform for SMEs and startups, by the end of this year or early next year to give them better access to the capital market.

The government on Tuesday approved measures to attract “high potential” foreigners, including long-term visas and tax breaks, to stimulate the declining economy. A spokesperson said the program could inject up to 1,000 billion baht into the economy over five years.

Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul responded to concerns that the proposed reopening of more tourist destinations to vaccinated foreigners on October 1 may be premature, saying the opinions of health experts must be taken seriously.

Bangkok’s reopening for vaccinated tourists will be delayed for two weeks, until October 15, as most of the city’s residents are still waiting for their second shot. The Ministry of Tourism and Sports is still counting on the capital to welcome at least 1 million international tourists by the end of the year.

Hoteliers are hoping that Bangkok’s reopening in October and campaigns to boost domestic travel will push occupancy rates from 10% to 20% during the upcoming peak season.

Phuket hotels have enjoyed more than 524,200 paid room nights since the island reopened to foreign tourists on July 1, with the largest group of arrivals from the United States.

Thailand faces hurdles in attracting travelers from the Middle East due to the complicated entry certificate application process and expensive Covid-19 testing. RT-PCR tests cost 200 to 300 each in Dubai, compared to 8,000 baht charged to visitors for three tests in Thailand, the TAT’s Dubai office said.

PTT Oil and Retail Business Plc (OR), the country’s largest oil trader by volume, plans to establish more business links with retailers looking for new sales channels at PTT gas stations after the closure of shopping centers during the recent lockdown.

PTT and Taiwan-based multinational electronics manufacturer Hon Hai Precision Industry Co, also known as Foxconn, are moving forward with a new joint venture electric vehicle (EV) production facility valued at $ 1 to $ 2 billion in the Eastern Economic Corridor.

Market-leading shopping center developer Central Pattana Plc (CPN) plans to launch a baht 1.85 billion mixed-use housing project targeting young buyers this month.

TQM Corp, the only SET-listed insurance broker, is preparing to enter the personal loan business in the fourth quarter with a new subsidiary aiming to lend 300 million baht this year.

Future : New Zealand will release third-quarter consumer confidence on Monday and Germany will release August producer prices. The United States will release building permits and second quarter current account data in August, and Canada will release new home prices in August.

The Federal Open Market Committee will hold a briefing after its highly anticipated policy meeting on Wednesday (early Thursday morning, Thailand time). The United States will release August existing home sales on Wednesday and Thailand will release August trade figures.

New Zealand will release August trade data on Friday and Japan will release August consumer staples.

Actions to watch out for: Capital Nomura Securities (CNS) recommends stocks of companies that will benefit from the lowest baht, including TU, CPF, NER, XO, and APURE. The brokerage firm recommends SAPP for beverage inventories, ASIAN for pet food, and SVI, HANA, and KCE for the electronics industry. The other stock choices are EPG and BANPU. The government’s proposal to increase the public debt ceiling could benefit construction stocks such as STEC, CK, ITD and PYLON if more public infrastructure spending takes place.

SCB Securities recommends the selective purchase of healthcare stocks, including BDMS, BCH, CHG and RJH. For tourist stocks, he suggests ERW. The stocks that will benefit from the launch of the iPhone 13 are COM7 and CPW.

Technical view: Maybank Kim Eng Securities sees support at 1600 and resistance at 1655. DBS Vickers Securities sees support at 1600 and resistance at 1650.

About Emilie Brandow

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